Beysenbi, 18 Sәuir 2024
Alasapyran 1356 22 pikir 26 Aqpan, 2024 saghat 14:40

Ukraina bas tartpaydy, Resey sheginbeydi...

Kollaj: dzen.ru

Resey men Ukraina arasyndaghy keng auqymdy soghystyng jýrip jatqanyna ýshinshi jylgha ayaq basty. Mәskeuding Qyrymdy anneksiyalap alyp, Ukrainanyng shyghys aimaqtarynda qaqtyghys tudyrghanyna on birinshi jyl boldy.

Soghystyng ýshinshi jyly...

The Guardian gazeti 2024 jyldyng qantarynda YouGov jәne Datapraxis әleumettanu instituttary Euroodaqtyng 12 elinde jýrgizgen saualnamagha silteme jasay otyryp: «Batysta ýmitsizdik kýsheyip keledi – qazir әrbir besinshi europalyq Reseyding Ukrainagha qarsy soghystaghy jenisin yqtimal dep sanaydy»,- dep jazdy.

Kiyev NATO-dan kelgen әskery kómek, eger kemy týsip, Resey әskerlerining Avdiyevkany basyp alghannan keyingi algha ilgerileuine toytarys beruge mәjbýr bolghan Ukraina Qaruly Kýshterining soghys qajettilikterin qanaghattandyra almaytynyna narazy boluda. Ukraina qorghanysyndaghy әlsiz nýktelerdi birden ýsh baghytta izdeude orys barlau: Zaporojie oblysyndaghy Robotino, Harikovtaghy Kupyansk jәne Donesk oblysyndaghy Chasov Yar túsyndaghy kem-ketikti taba aldy.

Mәskeu kez kelgen oppozisiyada tazaryp qana qoymay, olardy astyrtyn bir-birine aidap salugha kóshti. Budjetting 40 % «arnayy operasiyalargha» júmsalyp, RF әskery óndiristi úlghayta aldy. Óz әskerlerin oq ótine aidap, shyghyndardy esepke almay, bir ukraindyq әskery qyzmetshige besten jetige deyin qúrban etuge deyin bardy.

Barlyghy orystardyng ólgen tirilgenine qaramay soghysuynan shyndap qorqady, Reseylikter dәstýrli týrde «әielder әli bosanyp jatyr» degenge imanday senedi. Biraq búl shynymen de ondy ma?

Soghys ótu barysy óte naqty nәtiyjelermen baghalanatyn qiynda da, әdistemelik júmys. Atap aitsaq: on jyl boyy tikeley reseylik-ukraindyq qaqtyghys kezinde Mәskeu Ukraina aumaghynyng tek 18 payyzyn, sonyng ishinde Qyrymdy basyp alyp, jeke qúramnan, tehnikadan, aviasiyadan jәne Qara teniz flotynyng tórtten bir bóligin joghaltty. Búl Resey-Ukraina soghysyn baghalaghanda esten shygharmaugha tiyis aqiqat.

Múnyng eng dәl anyqtamasyn ótken jyly general-leytenant dәrejesimen Beligiyanyng qorghanys isteri jónindegi orynbasary retinde otstavkagha ketken Mark Tiys: «Songhy dýniyejýzilik soghystarda 1916 jәne 1941-1942 jyldardaghyday eki jaqtan da qayta qúru jәne dayyndyq» dep bergen bolatyn.

Yaghni, Ukraina men Batystyng ózderining әskery әleuetin arttyrudaghy birlesken keshendi júmysy jәne Reseyding soghysta týbegeyli betbúrys jasau әreketi, Ukraina Qaruly Kýshteri ýshin ózindik «Stalingrad» sanalatyn 2024 jylgha arnalghan búl strategiya Ukraina ýshin asa tiyimdi.

Áue qorghanysy/zymyrangha qarsy qorghanys jýielerin odan әri janghyrtu, úshqyshsyz úshaqtardy óndirudi úlghaytu, F-16 joyghyshtarynyng úrys alanyna kelui, artilleriyalyq snaryadtardy birtindep tolyqqandy paydalanu, amerikandyq ATACMS ballistikalyq zymyrandary jәne әrtýrli modifikasiyadaghy nemis «Taurus» qanatty zymyrandary ukraindyqtargha belsendi qorghanysta reseylik әskerlerding shabuyl qarqynyn keninen óristetuge mýmkindik beredi.

Sonymen qatar, Kremliding qandy elesi maydan dalasyn kezip, eger olar shayqasqa taghy da jayau әskerler men tankterdi tókse, bәri jaqsy bolady, tabysqa jetemiz dep emeksitti. Soghystaghy kez kelgen resurs Mәskeu ýshin shekteuli ekenin týsinikti bola týsti, Kiyev 2025 jylgha qaray әskery basymdyqqa jetetin bolady. Negizinde, 2024 jyl ekonomika men qarjy soghysy bolady. Bir jaghynan – újymdyq Batys, ekinshi jaghynan – Resey.
Búl sharpysudyng jenimpazy aldyn ala belgili – ol biraq Kremli emes. Áskery shyghyndardyng búryn-sondy bolmaghan úlghany - әskery jalaqy, oq-dәriler, tankter, úshaqtar jәne qaza tapqan jәne jaralanghan sarbazdargha ótemaqy - Kremli maqtanghandy jaqsy kóretin sanksiyalar jaghdayynda JIÓ ósuining negizgi qozghaushy kýshi bolsa kerek.

Biraq búl úzaqqa sozyla almaydy, erte me, kesh pe, «maydyng ornyna myltyq» sayasaty týptep kelgende jýieli qarjylyq-ekonomikalyq daghdarysqa әkep soqtyrady. Qazir shamadan tys optimizmning uaqyty emes. Biraq búl pessimizm zamany da emes. Búl 2024 jyl, soghystyng ýshinshi jyly, Kiyev pen újymdyq Batys kóp júmys isteuge tura keledi. Sonda ghana Jenis bolady.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov

Abai.kz

22 pikir