Resey Ghylym Akademiyasy Shyghystanu institutynyng ghylymy qyzmetkeri Aleksandr Vorobiev songhy kezdegi memlekettik tónkerister men sayasy jaghdaylar negizinde Ortalyq Aziya elderindegi túraqtylyqtyng kriyteriylerin jәne túraqsyzdyqtyng yqtimal sebepterin atady.

Týrikmenstan: Sayasy kóterilisterdi boldyrmau eldegi iyerarhiyalyq qúrylymgha negizdelgen kýshti әskery apparattyng moynynda. Sonday-aq elde tómen, biraq túraqty әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jaghday qalyptasqan. Biylikti tituldy taypa Tekeden shyqqandar alghan. Ónirlerdi qarjylandyru ortalyqtandyrylghan.

Memlekettik tónkeris әreketi turaly songhy janalyqtardy «elding barlau agenttikteri qoldan jýrgizgen» dep sipattalady. Túraqsyzdyq tek rulyq bólinushilikten tuyndauy mýmkin.

Ózbekstan: Biylik tranziytining sәtti jýzege asuy eldi túraqsyzdyqtan saqtady.

Qazaqstan: Sayasy tónkeristerdi boldyrmau kәsiby әri tәrtibi myqty qauipsizdik kýshterining jauapkershiliginde. Túraqsyzdyqqa әkelui mýmkin jaghdaylar: Biylikke bәseke eki polusting (Toqaev pen Nazarbaevtyng jaqtastary) boluy, halyqtyng az qamtylghan toptarynyng narazylyghy men belsendiligi, sonday-aq sәtsiz biylik tranziyti. Sonymen qatar, 2022 jylghy qantardaghy narazylyqtar kezinde qauipsizdik kýshterining sylbyr әreketi tolqulardyng qyza týsuine mýmkindik berdi.

Qyrghyzstan: Túraqsyzdyqqa әkelui mýmkin jaghdaylar: Elding soltýstigi men ontýstigi arasyndaghy sayasi, ekonomikalyq jәne etno-әleumettik aiyrmashylyqtar, biylikke bәsekeles taraptardyng boluy, qauipsizdik kýshterining әlsizdigi, sonday-aq halyqtyng az qamtylghan toptarynyng narazylyghy men belsendiligi. Eldegi revolusiyalar memleketti kýiretpeydi dep sipattalady.

Tәjikstan: Túraqsyzdyqqa әkelui mýmkin jaghdaylar: Biylik tranziytining naqty modelining bolmauy jәne syrttan yqpal etushi kýshterding boluy, onyng ishinde radikaldy islamister men kórshi Aughanstan aumaghyndaghy ekstremistik toptardyng jaqyndyghy. Eldegi sayasy túraqtylyq Resey men Qytaydyng qarjylyq qoldauyna baylanysty.

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