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Qogham 7085 0 pikir 1 Aqpan, 2015 saghat 10:37

2015: ORTALYQ AZIYaDAGhY ENG MANYZDY ON OQIGhA

Halyqaralyq jaghdaydyng qazirgidey qúbylmaly kezeninde payda bolatyn jahandyq, aimaqtyq synaqtar men qauip-qaterler siyaqty tendensiyalar sayasi-ekonomikalyq problemalardy sheshude manyzdy faktorgha ainalady. Qazir jyl boyy boluy mýmkin oqighalargha boljam jasap, ony jariyalau dәstýri bar. Álemdik saraptamalyq qúrylymdardyng tәjiriybesine sýiene otyryp, QR Preziydenti janyndaghy Qazaqstan strategiyalyq zertteuler instituty 2015 jyly Ortalyq Aziyanyng sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq kýn tәrtibin qalyptastyrugha yqpal etetin aimaqtyq manyzdy oqighalargha ózining sholuyn úsynady.  

1. Jahandyq ekonomikalyq resessiya

2015 jyly әlemdegi eng iri ekonomikalardyng (IJÓ kórsetkishi eki nemese odan da kóp kvartaldar boyy nasharlauy) onyng ishinde Europalyq Odaq, Japoniya, Resey siyaqty elderding ekonomikasy resessiyagha úrynu qaupi bar. Sonday-aq, QHR men AQSh ekonomikasynda da damu yrghaghy bayaulaydy. Álemdik naryqtardaghy daghdarys ghalamdyq ekonomikanyng damuyn tejep, Ortalyq Aziyanyng da ekonomikasyna kesirin tiygizbey qoymaydy. Yaghni, aimaqtyng ónimderine atalghan memleketterden jәne eng negizgi sauda әriptesteri Europalyq Odaq, Resey jәne Qytay tarapynan súranys azayady.

2. Energiya kózderi men basqa da shiykizat resurstaryna degen baghanyng túraqsyzdyghy

2015 jyly әlemdik tauar naryghyndaghy jaysyzdyq Ortalyq Aziya elderining basty eksporty – múnay, gaz, metall jәne auylsharuashylyghy shiykizat ónimderin qúnsyzdandyra týsedi. Al eksporttyq tauarlar baghasynyng tómendeui ekonomikalyq damugha kedergi keltirip, ónir ekonomikasyn qúldyratuy mýmkin. Jәne ekonomikalyq qolaysyz jaghdaylar qalyptastuy kәdik.

3. Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaq (EAEO): odan әri damuy

2015 jyldyng eng manyzdy oqighalarynyng biri – Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaqtyng tolyqqandy júmys istey bastauy jәne onyng Ortalyq Aziya baghytyna qaray keneni. Sonymen qatar, biriguge ghalamdyq ekonomikalyq qiyn jaghdaydyng da әseri boluy mýmkin.

Integrasiyalyq prosesting manyzdy kezeni retinde EAEO-gha Qyrghyzstannyng (Qyrghyzstannyng ekonomikalyq odaqqa kiru jónindegi kelisim 2015 jyldyng 1 mamyrynda kýshine enedi) kiretinin ataugha bolady. Sonday-aq, EAEO-nyng Tәjikstanmen ózara qarym-qatynasynyng formatyn anyqtau kýn tәrtibine shyghuy mýmkin.

Boluy mýmkin taghy bir óte manyzdy oqigha - Ózbekstanmen erkin sauda aimaghyn qúru jónindegi konsulitativti prosesting bastaluy. Múny EAEO-tyng aimaqta yqpal etu aumaghyn keneytuining bir kórsetkishi dep ataugha bolady.   

 4. Ukraina: daghdarystan shyghudyng auyr joldary

Ukraina daghdarysynyng jaqyn bolashaqta halyqaralyq qauipsizdikke tikeley yqpaly jalghasa beredi. Shamasy, qaqtyghys susymaly formagha úlasyp, sozylmaly sipatqa ie bolady. Sәikesinshe ukrain daghdarysy Ortalyq Aziyadaghy ahualgha yqpal etetin negizgi faktor bolyp qala beredi. Aymaqtaghy elder ýshin Resey men Batys arasyndaghy shiyelenis óz әserin tiygizbey qoymaydy.

Dәl osy jaghdayda qazaqstandyq taraptyng postkenestik kenistiktegi eng ýlken daghdarysty sheshu jolyndaghy bitimgershilik әreketi asa manyzdy bolmaq. 

5. Ortalyq Aziya elderindegi saylau nauqany: Tәjikstan, Ózbekstan, Qyrghyzstandaghy saylaular

2015 jyl - Ortalyq Aziya elderining sayasy damuyndaghy manyzdy kezen. Tәjikstan parlamentining tómengi palatasyna (1 nauryz) jәne jogharghy palatasyna (27 nauryz), Ózbekstanda preziydenttik oryngha (29 nauryz), Qyrghyzstanda parlamenttik (1 qarasha) saylau ótedi. 

Aldaghy saylaular aimaqtaghy respublikalardyng sayasy ómirin jandandyratyn bolady. Búl túrghyda sayasy jýiesinde partiya men parlament erekshe oryn alatyn Qyrghyzstandaghy saylau erekshe qyzyghushylyq tudyrady.   

6. Aughanstandaghy jana sayasy kezen

Aymaqtyq túraqtylyq pen qauipsizdik salasynda Aughanstandaghy qazirgi jaghday óte manyzdy. Aughan faktorynyng yqpaly biyl eki jaghdaygha baylanysty. Olar - ISAF әskery missiyasynyng ayaqtaluy men jana sayasy biylikting qalyptasuy.

Áskeriy-sayasy jaghdaydaghy qiyn kezende elde últtyq ýkimet ózining iskerlik qyzmetin kórsetui kerek. Taghy bir manyzdy mindet aldaghy uaqytta bolatyn parlamenttik jәne jergilikti biylik organdaryna saylau ótkizu. Aughanstannyng ishki sayasy túraqtylyghy ghana emes, tútas aimaqtyng jaghdayy dәl osy mәselelerde sayasy ymyrashyldyq ornatugha tikeley baylanysty. 

7. Tayau Shyghys: terroristik (lankestik) qauipting kýshengi

2015 jyly ekstremistik jәne terroristik úiymdardyng belsendi әreketteri ózekti mәsele bolyp qala beredi. IShIYM-ning nyghayyp, belsendi әreketterin tek Tayau Shyghysta jýrgizip qana qoymay, taralu aimaghyn odan әri keneytu mýmkindigi joghary. Siriya men Irak aumaghy әlem boyynsha radikaldardyng shoghyrlanatyn ortalyghy bolyp qalady. 

Sondyqtan biyl da búl qauipti zalalsyzdandyrugha, sonday-aq, Ortalyq Aziya ónirden shyqqandardyng Tayau Shyghystaghy terroristik toptardyng qataryna qosyluyna tosqauyl qong ýshin әdis-tәsilder qoldanylady.

8. Tranzitti-kóliktik әleuetting artuy

2015 jyl Ortalyq Aziyanyng damuyna serpin beretin tranzitti-kóliktik әleuetin jýzege asyruynyng jana kezeni bolmaq.

Kóliktik kommunikasiyany әrtaraptandyruda «Qazaqstan-Týrikmenstan-Iran» temirjolynyng tolyqqandy jýzege asuy manyzdy joba bolyp tabylady. Atalghan joba tranzittik poyyzdardyn  «Soltýstik-Ontýstik» baghytyndaghy qozghalysyn jandandyryp, Resey, QHR, Ortalyq Aziya jәne Tayau Shyghys naryqtaryn baylanystyrady. Sonymen qatar Qazaqstandaghy «Jezqazghan-Beyneu» men «Arqalyq-Shúbarkól» jana temirjol jelilerinde de jýk jәne jolaushy tasymaly artatyn bolady.

2015 jyl «Batys Qytay – Batys Europa» dәlizindegi qazaqstandyq aumaq ýshin manyzdy kezen. Negizgi bóligi jasaldy, jaqyn arada danghyl jol tolyqtay ashylady.

Taghy bir aituly oqigha, Ashhabadtyng habarlauy boyynsha, Týrikmenstan-Aughanstan-Pәkistan-Ýndistan gaz qúbyry qúrylysynyng bastaluy.

9. Aymaqqa Qytaydyng ekonomikalyq yqpalynyng artuy

Aymaqqa Qytaydyng ekonomikalyq yqpaly artyp keledi. Beyjing keng auqymdy infraqúrylymdyq jәne energetikalyq jobalardy jýzege asyrudy ýzdiksiz jalghastyryp, aimaqtyng basty seriktes memleketi ústanymyn nyghaytyp otyr.

QHR negizgi basymdyqty «Jibek jolynyng ekonomikalyq beldeui» jobasyna berude. Ol ýshin Qytay Jibek joly qoryna 40 mlrd dollar bóludi josparlap otyr.

Atalghan strategiya Ortalyq Aziyany keng auqymdy Aziya-Tynyq múhit erkin sauda aimaghyn qúru bastamasyna tartudy kózdeydi.

10. Irannyng yadrolyq baghdarlamasyna qatysty mәselelerdi sheshu perspektivalary

2015 jyl Irannyng yadrolyq baghdarlamasy boyynsha kelissózderding sheshushi kezeni boluy mýmkin. Aymaqtyq qauipsizdik jәne tolyqqandy memleketaralyq infraqúrylymdy jobalardy jýzege asyrudyng bәri osy kelissózderge baylanysty bolmaq. 

Irannyng yadrolyq baghdarlamasyna qatysty mәseleler ong sheshimin tauyp, sanksiyalar alynyp tastalsa, Ortalyq Aziyanyng sauda-ekonomikalyq, kóliktik-tranzittik әleueti arta týspek.

 

Abay.kz

 

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