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Biylik 1313 3 pikir 16 Qyrkýiek, 2020 saghat 13:12

Rubliding qúldyrauy tengege qalay әser etedi?

Resey ekonomisteri qyrkýiek-qazan ailarynda rubli devalivasiyalanady dep boljaydy. Kórshi el valutasynyng әlsireui tengening teris dinamikasynyng qaupin tudyrady. Bizding valutanyng baghamy qalay ózgeredi jәne memleketke tengening nyghangyn qalay yntalandyru kerek? Búl turaly «finreview.info» sarapshylary jazypty.

Songhy aptalarda Resey rublining әlsireui jana devalivasiya turaly qauesetterdi tudyrdy. Jyl basynan beri rubli 21%-gha әlsirep, Týrik lirasy, Braziliya realy jәne Ontýstik Afrika randymen birge eng kóp zardap shekken valutalar tobyna kirdi. Birneshe kýn búryn internet kenistiginde Resey rublining taghdyry turaly qarama-qayshylyqty boljamdar payda boldy. Keybir sarapshylar onyng uaqytsha nyghangyn boljaydy, al basqalary reseylik bankterding dollarmen eseptesuden bas tartuyn aitady.

Qazaqstannyng sauda seriktesteri retinde Resey valutasynyng әlsireui tenge ýshin teris dinamika tәuekelderine alyp keledi.

Tenge baghamy qalay ózgeredi?

Eng aiqyn faktor - pandemiyadan keyingi kezen. Infeksiya taraluynyng ekinshi tolqynyn boldyrmaugha bolady jәne onday jaghdayda shekteu sharalaryn qayta engizu qajettiligi tuyndamaydy. Alayda, taghy bir jaghday boluy mýmkin, ol - eger Aziya men Europa ekinshi ret karantinge jabylsa, Resey de jabylady degen sóz. Búl el ishinde jana túraqtandyru sharalaryn engizuge alyp keledi, ekonomikalyq belsendilikting qalpyna keluin aitarlyqtay bayaulatuy mýmkin.

Kelesi tәuekel - múnay naryghyndaghy jaghdaydyng nasharlauy. Qazir múnay baghasy әli de eksporttaushy elderding OPEK+ ayasynda qol jetkizilgen kelisimderdi oryndaluyna baylanysty. Ol búzylghan jaghdayda Brent baghasy 35-40 AQSh dollargha deyin týsui mýmkin. Búl óz kezeginde rubli baghamyn әlsiretedi.

Ýshinshi tәuekel - retinde Reseyding Ortalyq Bankining bazalyq mólsherlemeni minimumgha deyin, yaghny 4,25%-gha tómendetkenin atap ótken jón. Ádette búl depozitterding kiristiligining tómendeuine jәne nesiyelerding qol jetimdiligining artuyna baylanysty ekonomikadaghy erkin ainalymdaghy aqsha massasynyng artuyna әkeledi. Búl tauarlar men qyzmetterdi satyp alugha kóp aqsha júmsalatynyn bildiredi. Yaghni, el ishinde rubli súranysqa ie bola bastaydy, biraq investorlar ýshin onyng tartymdylyghy tómendeydi, óitkeni damyghan elderding valutalarymen differensial tarylady.

Tórtinshi qauip - Reseyge qarsy jana sanksiyalar engizu qaupi, jәne búl eshqashan valutagha ong әser etpeydi.

Resey valutasy ýlken jiyrmalyqtaghy eng qúbylmaly valuta

Búl rubliding qúbylmalylyghyn kýsheytetin Reseyde jýrgizilip jatqan qúbylmaly sayasat jaghdayyndaghy jana sanksiyalar qaupi. Sondyqtan jana sanksiyalar engizilu qaupin eskerui kerek. Keybir sarapshylardyng pikirinshe, AQSh-taghy preziydenttik saylau ayaqtalghangha deyin Reseyge qarsy sanksiyalar engizilmeydi. Tiyisinshe, rubli óz pozisiyasyn uaqytsha nyghayta alady. Onyng AQSh dollaryna qatysty baghamy shamamen 7%- gha ósip, 70 rublige jetui mýmkin.

Alayda, eger sanksiyalar qabyldansa, reseylik bankter ýshin esep aiyrysudy AQSh dollarymen jýrgizu mýmkindiginen tolyghymen airylu qaupi kýsheyedi. Búl 2018 jyly Reseyding bank jýiesine shekteuler turaly amerikandyq zang jobalaryna baylanysty. Qabyldanghan sharalar segiz iri memlekettik bankterge soqqy berui kerek-ti. Ekonomister ortalyq bankting altyn rezervterining ósuin dәl osy qauippen baylanystyrady. Songhy alty jylda Reseydegi altyn qory 120%- gha ósip, 2,3 myng tonnagha jetti.
Alayda, 2020 jyldyng sәuirinde múnay dollarlarynyng jetispeushiligin jabu ýshin onyng eksportynan týsetin kiristermen altyn satyp aludy toqtatty. Ýkimet elde óndirilgen barlyq baghaly metaldardy әketuge jol ashyp, kenshilerge liysenziyalar bere bastady.

Biraq rubli ózining ótimdiligin joghalta týsti. Al tamyz aiynyng sonynda ghana Resey valutasy qayta satyla bastady. Búghan birneshe faktorlar sebep bolghan. Búl geosayasy saladaghy belgisizdikting jogharylauy, tólem balansynyng nasharlauy, reziydent emester ýshin federaldy nesie obligasiyalarynyng tartymdylyghynyng tómendeui jәne karantindik sharalar alynyp tastalghannan keyin import pen syrtqy turizmning jandanuy.

Alayda, múnay baghasynyng ósuin boljay otyryp, keybir sarapshylar әli de rubliding ósui turaly ústanymdy ústanady. Búl eng aldymen, Beyruttegi oqighalarmen jәne AQSh-taghy kómirsutek qory 9,4 million barrelige tómendegeni turaly aitylghan aqparatpen baylanysty.

Múnay baghasy óspeui mýmkin, al onyng ortasha qúny jyl sonyna deyin 42,75 AQSh dollary dengeyinde saqtalady. OPEK + elderi kóktemde 1 shildege deyin júmys isteytin óndiristi qysqartu turaly kelisti. Yaghni, kelesi ailarda olar shekteu sharalaryn birtindep jenildetip, súranysty proporsionaldy týrde óndirudi bastaydy.

Qazir múnay naryghy is jýzinde túraqtandy. 2020 jyldyng birinshi jartysynda әlemdik múnay qorynyng tәuligine 6,4 mln barrelige deyin ósuinen keyin naryqta toqyrau sezildi. Al ekinshi jartyjyldyqta ol shamamen tәuligine 4,2 mln barrelige tómendeydi.

Áriyne, uaqyt óte kele múnaydyng qúny 60 dollargha oraluy mýmkin, biraq búl birtindep bolady. Naryqtaghy aghymdaghy bagha belgileushiler - importtaushylar men múnay óndirushilerding konsensusy.  Mәselen, әlemdik ekonomikalyq qúldyrau jaghdayynda elderge ómirlik qajetti energiya kózi bolyp tabylatyn arzan kómirsutekter qajet. Tym qymbat múnay ekonomikalyq ósudi bayaulatady. Al tym arzan múnay óndirushiler ýshin tiyimsiz. Sondyqtan importtaushylar men eksporttaushylardy qanaghattandyratyn tepe-tendik qúny 40-60 AQSh dollardy qúraydy.

Osylaysha, jyl sonyna deyin múnay baghasy túraqty bolyp qalady. Sonymen, kómirsutekter naryghy rubliding nyghangyn qamtamasyz etpeydi, kerisinshe, Resey ekonomikasy múnay dollarynyng jetispeushiligin jauyp, altyn rezervterin joghaltady.

1 rubli – 90 dollar boluy mýmkin

Qazir rubliding qanshalyqty devalivasiyalanatynyn boljau qiyn, óitkeni valutagha atalghan faktorlardyng qysym dengeyi olardyng masshtabyna baylanysty. Alayda, qazirding ózinde jyldyng sonyna deyin Resey valutasy óz pozisiyasyn bir AQSh dollary ýshin 80-85 rublige deyin әlsiretetini anyq. Epiydemiologiyalyq jaghday qaytadan nasharlaghan jәne Reseyge qarsy iri sanksiyalar engizilgen jaghdayda, AQSh dollary ýshin 90 rubli belgisine jetu mýmkin emes.

Tenge devalivasiyalana ma?

Kóptegen qazaqstandyqty tengening aldaghy uaqta ne bolatyny tolghandyrady. Óitkeni, jelide tengening rublige baylanysy turaly aqparat kóp. Búl bizding valutamyzdyng Reseyden keyin devalivasiyalanuy mýmkin degen pikirtalas tudyrady. Demek, valutalardy baylanystyru, tengening rubli siyaqty qúndylyghy men túraqtylyghyna ie boluy kerek degendi bildiredi. Áriyne, Resey valutasy tengege әser etedi, óitkeni Resey Qazaqstannyng negizgi sauda seriktesi.  Alayda fakt boyynsha valutalardyng baylanysy joq, óitkeni jyl basynan beri rubli AQSh dollaryna qatysty 21%- gha, al tenge 11,4%- gha әlsiredi. Búl rette bizding valutamyzdyng reseylik valutagha qatysty baghamy bir rubli ýshin 5,3 tengeden 6,2 tengege deyin qúbyldy.

Bizding aiyrbas baghamymyz múnay baghasynyng qozghalysyn, sheteldik investisiyalar aghynyn jәne koronavirustyq infeksiyanyng taraluymen baylanysty jaghdaydy qosa alghanda, jergilikti jәne syrtqy faktorlardan qalyptasady. Tiyisinshe, osy faktorlardyng túraqtanuyn eskere otyryp, jyl sonyna deyin bir AQSh dollary ýshin 410 tengeden 430 tengege deyingi aralyqta bolatyn tenge baghamynyng túraqtylyghy turaly aitugha bolady.

Qazaqstan valutasy óz jaghdayyn nyghayta alady

Qazaqstandyq valutany nyghaytu Qarjy naryghy qalpyna kelip, ekonomikanyng naqty sektorlarynyng ósui qayta bastalghan jaghdayda ghana mýmkin bolady. Álbette, jyl sonyna deyin múnay qúny búrynghy 60 AQSh dollary  dengeyine oralmaydy, yaghny Qazaqstangha ekonomikanyng shiykizattyq emes sektoryn, atap aitqanda, ShOB-ty damytu qajet.

Alayda, daghdarys kezeninde memleket ekonomikany auqymdy týrde subsidiyalay almaydy, óitkeni búl qarajat naryqty qalpyna keltiru ýshin qajet. Sondyqtan qazir sheteldik kapitaldy tartu qajettiligi tuyndaydy. Biraq songhy ailardyng kórsetkishi 2020 jyly jahandyq investisiyalyq aghyndardyng 40%-gha tómendegenin kórsetedi.

Basqasha aitqanda, elder Investisiyalar jarysyn bastaydy. Búl mәselede Qazaqstannyng «Astana» halyqaralyq qarjy ortalyghy týrindegi sózsiz artyqshylyghy bar.

Resmy júmys istegen eki jyldyng ishinde qarjy ortalyghy sheteldik kompaniyalardyng nazaryn audardy. Songhy derekter boyynsha әlemning 42 elinen 545 kompaniya AHQO qatysushylary bolghan. Qarjy ortalyghynyng qatysushylary 444 mln AQSh dollaryn investisiyalaghan. AQSh dollaryn qarjy tehnologiyalaryn damytu, qúrylys, auyl sharuashylyghy jәne óndeu ónerkәsibi siyaqty qazaqstandyq sektorlargha bólgen.

Búl orayda investorlar Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna odan әri investisiya salugha niyetti ekenin, al investisiyalyq týsimder kólemi tayau uaqytta 3,5 mlrd AQSh dollaryna deyin ósui mýmkin ekenin aita ketken jón.

Qarjy ortalyghy sonymen qatar investorlargha kәsiporyndy nemese jobany basqarugha mýmkindik bermey, ekonomikanyng ósuin yntalandyrugha mýmkindik beretin portfelidik investisiyalardy damytady. Astana International Exchange (AIX) birjasy arqyly tartylghan kapital kólemi shamamen 4,6 mlrd AQSh dollaryna jetken.

Osylaysha, qysqa uaqyt ishinde AHQO jahandyq qarjy jýiesine integrasiyalanu ýshin qajetti infraqúrylymdy әzirlep qana qoymay, investorlardyng senimine de qol jetkizdi. Onyng odan әri damuy ekonomikanyng ósuine, qarjy sektorynyng nyghangyna yqpal etetin bolady jәne sonyng saldarynan tenge baghamynyng kýshengine alyp keledi.

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